The latest College Football Playoff polls are out, and the Big 12 is likely to only get one team in unless it gets some help ahead of it. Texas Tech landed at No. 6 in the latest poll, behind Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M are the top three and only undefeated teams left in the mix. Alabama and Georgia rounded out the top five and are the only one-loss teams ahead of the Red Raiders.
Tech is ahead of one-loss teams Ole Miss and Oregon, who would also be in the College Football Playoff if it started today. Other one-loss teams who are currently on the outside looking in are BYU (No. 12), whose only loss is to Texas Tech, and Georgia Tech (No. 16). Notre Dame, Texas, and Oklahoma, all two-loss teams, are ahead of BYU and Georgia Tech in the latest CFB rankings.
Miami, which is the highest-rated ACC team in the latest ranking at No. 15, doesn’t look like it even has a path to make it to the ACC championship game with two conference losses. The Hurricanes would need a lot of help ahead of them in their own conference, let alone nationally, to sneak into the College Football Playoff. The Big 12 has a third team ahead of the top ACC team. Utah (7-2) is in a better spot than Miami, and they will need a small miracle to get into the College Football Playoff. Also, let’s not forget about Cincinnati, which is ranked No. 25 in the latest ranking and only has one loss in the Big 12.
So yes, while there are technically four teams in the mix for the Big 12, it’s likely only the Big 12 champ gets into the dance, with an outside chance that two teams get in. Texas Tech should dominate its final two games against UCF and West Virginia. Anything can happen, but anything other than the Red Raiders finishing 11-1 before the Big 12 Championship Game would be a shock.
Meanwhile, the other contenders don’t have it quite as “easy”. Utah gets to play at Baylor, home against Kansas State, and at Kansas to finish the season. BYU and Cincinnati will help decide each other’s fate in a couple of weeks when they meet up in Cincinnati on November 22nd. It’s very likely the winner of that game will go on to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Bearcats host Arizona this weekend and play at TCU to close the season. The Cougars host TCU this weekend and close the season hosting UCF.
Houston (5-2 in the Big 12) and Arizona State (4-2 in the Big 12) still have an outside shot as well, but a lot of tie-breaker scenarios would need to break their way and are not very likely. Houston does have a head-to-head win over Utah, but Utah has the head-to-head win over Arizona State. All that to say, Houston and Arizona State are not ranked in the Top 25 and are not likely to sneak into the Big 12 Championship. Despite being a top 15 team, Utah will also have a tough time getting in unless it wins out and sees Notre Dame, Texas, and Oklahoma all pick up their third loss in the closing weeks of the season.
It’s never good to assume, but let’s go with the assumption that the winner of the BYU/Cincinnati game gets into the Big 12 Championship against Texas Tech. If it’s Cincinnati vs Texas Tech, a Bearcats win would launch them into the College Football Playoff and potentially push the Red Raiders out, depending on how the other one and two-loss teams finish the season. There would still be a chance in that scenario that Tech would get one of the final at-large bids.
Seeing a BYU/Texas Tech rematch would be the best bet to getting two teams into the College Football Playoff. The Red Raiders just smashed the Cougars, but that was on Tech’s home field. If BYU beats Tech, then each team would have a win over the other, and both teams would have a case to get in. If Tech beats BYU, Tech would be a contender for a bye, and BYU would still have a fighter’s chance to be an at-large team with their only losses of the season coming to a top-five Red Raiders team.
The good news for the Big 12: the SEC will continue to beat up on each other. The top teams in the Big 12 need to handle their business in games in which they are favored, and there is a good chance the Big 12 can get two teams into the dance. It is officially scoreboard-watching season for Big 12 fans.
Keep an eye on these games: You’ll want to see No. 9 Notre Dame lose at No. 22 Pittsburgh this weekend. You’ll want to see Oklahoma lose at No. 4 Alabama this weekend. You’ll want to see No. 10 Texas lose at No. 5 Georgia. Right now, Notre Dame is a double-digit favorite, but Oklahoma and Texas are both one-touchdown underdogs. Oklahoma and Texas losses would put BYU and Utah right there within striking distance of an at-large bid for the next College Football Playoff ranking.
The Big 12 will sort itself out. The rest of the College Football Playoff standings will sort themselves out. Are you hoping to see multiple Big 12 teams in, or do you want to see Texas Tech win out and soar into the top four and get a bye and potentially get a better path to a National Championship? It’s going to be a heck of a final few weeks of the season to see it all unfold!
