The path to winning a national championship in college football is arguably more wide open than ever before, with a 12-team College Football Playoff that gives more access to teams, while also creating more opportunities for upsets.
At the same time, it’s also harder for the top teams in college football to win a national championship. The Playoff creates a gauntlet to run through, which can make a very good season go sideways late.
Even with that new reality of the postseason format, there are still teams every year that have a national championship or bust mindset. Here are four to keep an eye on this season.
Texas is one of those programs where a national championship is always expected, even if the Longhorns have consistently come up short in recent years. That is, until Steve Sarkisian has gotten the Longhorns on the doorstep of a national championship, going to the Playoff twice in the last two seasons.
Now, quarterback Arch Manning is in his fourth college season, and it’s time to actually break through and win a national championship. The Longhorns know this, too. They added 22 incoming transfers, including massive names like Hollywood Smothers and Cam Coleman, to the offense. It kind of feels like if Texas doesn’t win this year, it never will.
There’s no doubt that the Oregon Ducks have been close under head coach Dan Lanning. One of the best teams in the regular season, the Ducks have been to the College Football Playoff two seasons in a row, but also suffered blowout losses each time to the eventual national champions.
The Ducks have a likely high draft pick at quarterback in Dante Moore. In other words, it seems like the Ducks are lined up to win it all in 2026. If they don’t, the concerns that Lanning can’t handle big games will only grow louder.
In a controversial decision last season, Notre Dame was left outside of the College Football Playoff. In an even more controversial decision, Notre Dame decided not to play a bowl game at all. That earned the Irish plenty of criticism, but it also signaled that this is a program focused on the College Football Playoff berths and national championships.
This year, Notre Dame’s roster feels tailor-made to go on a deep run. That starts with quarterback C.J. Carr, who is eligible to go to the NFL Draft after the season and could become a high pick. The defense is also loaded with experience and talent. Add in a very manageable schedule, and Notre Dame expects to be right there at the end of the season.
In some respects, every year is a must-win year for Ohio State. There’s also something to be said for having won a national championship two seasons ago, which does take some pressure off the Buckeyes. Still, everything seemed lined up for Ryan Day.
Ohio State returns arguably the best quarterback and wide receiver combination from a season ago, with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith back. There’s no doubt that Smith is the best receiver in college football, and he’ll be headed for the NFL next year. So, it’s hard to imagine the Buckeyes have a similarly explosive offense in 2027.
