On Sunday, Zaccharie Risacher became the NBA’s first No. 1 pick since 2017 to not make it to his third year with the team that drafted him. The Hawks traded Risacher, the top pick in 2024, to Dallas in a three-team deal that also sent Lu Dort to Atlanta.
Markelle Fultz was the last former top pick not to make it to Year 3 with his initial team, and there were extenuating circumstances, to say the least, in that case. Anthony Bennett (No. 1 in 2013) went from Cleveland to Minnesota in the Kevin Love trade after just one season with the Cavaliers. Before that, Elton Brand was the last No. 1 pick traded before his third year, going from the Bulls to the Clippers.
Brand shows that you cannot write Risacher off yet. Fultz and Bennett present less optimistic comparisons. The Athletic’s Christian Clark, Jason Jones and Law Murray got together to discuss the move, No. 1 picks who didn’t live up to their draft slot and what it means to be “a bust.”
What does it take for a No. 1 pick to be classified as a bust, and how close is Risacher to qualifying?
Clark: For a player to be considered a bust, I think the gap between the expectations placed on him and the player’s actual production needs to be massive. Risacher was undeniably disappointing in Atlanta, but I don’t think he quite meets this criterion. Perhaps then-Hawks general manager Landry Fields viewed Risacher as a future star, but I don’t think many draft analysts felt this way. Our Sam Vecenie had Risacher as the fifth player on his big board, for example, in what was considered a weak 2024 class. If Risacher doesn’t develop into a high-level role player in Dallas, I think I’d be comfortable using the bust label. I’m not there yet.
Jones: “Bust” is a term I’ve always made me cringe — it just feels so mean — but I’ll play along here. In today’s NBA, I’d say if that player doesn’t have his third-year option picked up and is out of the league within five seasons, he is a bust. Picking up the third year is a given for any first-round pick that’s shown some level of competence. That happened last year with Atlanta, so Risacher isn’t quite a bust yet. But this season in Dallas will say a lot about that label. If he has no impact and is out of the league after this season, that word will follow him.
Murray: We’re obviously only here because Risacher was the No. 1 pick of his draft, a class that one agent told me that he was happy not to have any clients in. The Hawks won the wrong lottery. Where does Risacher go in the 2023, 2025 or 2026 drafts at 19 years old? Anytime I have ever written about Risacher, most recently in the developmental corps project before the draft, I’ve described how he’s not the on-ball presence that most top overall picks are. A top overall pick who is a bust is one that falls far below basketball production expectations. Risacher is a bust for the Hawks, but that doesn’t mean that he has to be a bust overall, and he still has his health and a professional-caliber skill set. Now, Risacher will need to display some resolve and perseverance as well.
When thinking about the success of a top pick, how much do you consider the lack of a consensus No. 1, as was the case in 2024?
Clark: I think you have to consider it. Just because Risacher has the “No. 1 pick” label doesn’t mean he should be compared to Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg, the top picks in 2023 and 2025, respectively. Wembanyama will be an MVP candidate every season, as long as he’s healthy. Flagg looks like a lock to be a multi-time All-Star, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he develops into one of the five or 10 best players in the NBA. If Risacher can even make one All-Star team in his career, it would be a shock. It’s not fair to compare him to other No. 1 picks like Wembanyama and Flagg. Risacher didn’t choose to go No. 1. The Hawks chose him.
Jones: It’s a factor, but that doesn’t mean a team can’t swing and miss badly. The Hawks picked a player who couldn’t stay in the rotation. That’s just crazy. Not every pick is going to be a Hall of Famer, but I’d expect an NBA front office to be able to land a player who can stay on the court with the first pick.
Murray: It’s a part of the context. Risacher was an outlier year first overall pick. But honestly, I don’t really care that much where a player was drafted. All your draft status does is give you some rope in the grand scheme of things. Can you play or not? Can you be a good teammate? Can you care enough to compete? Consistently? That’s what I primarily consider for the success of a top pick, a bottom pick or a player who wasn’t picked at all.
Was the Hawks’ mistake drafting for need over talent? What else is there to consider in this case?
Clark: I think a general rule is to avoid drafting players No. 1 who don’t already have at least one elite skill. I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I was watching Risacher play every single night in the Euroleague, but I never saw him impact the game in one way that wowed me before the Hawks chose him. At draft time, I was a proponent of the Hawks taking Reed Sheppard with the first pick because I thought he was such a special shooter. (Sheppard converted a ridiculous 52.1 percent of his 3s at Kentucky.)
I think it’s safe to say that Stephon Castle has been the best player from the 2024 class. Castle was an exceptional point-of-attack defender in college, and that has translated to the NBA. He was invaluable in the Spurs’ run to the NBA Finals earlier this year.
Jones: Drafting for need with the first pick is always bad, unless your need happens to be whoever is at the top of the draft board. It’s clear Castle should have been the first pick, but the Hawks tried to fill a need. The lack of a consensus top player complicated things. The Hawks also don’t have a great history of getting things right in the draft. Risacher is just the latest example.
Murray: Not to be rude, but the Hawks were in a state of mistake in general in 2024. The only players still left on the team from the end of the 2023-24 season are Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu and Mouhamed Gueye. They didn’t pick a player like Stephon Castle because they just flunked the Trae Young/Dejounte Murray partnership, and I can see how Castle and the incoming Dyson Daniels would have been a struggle. The real issue for the Hawks in the 2024 draft is that they were still trying to salvage the Trae Young era. That’s really what didn’t work, and ironically, once Young left, it never got better in Atlanta for Risacher either. Onsi Saleh has turned that team over significantly.
Is there a top pick who did not become a star for whom you have a soft spot?
Clark: Markelle Fultz. Holy moly, he was electric in his one-and-done college season at Washington. His pull-up jumper game was so special. The nerve condition Fultz dealt with in his right shoulder seemed to impact him to the point where he had to alter his shooting mechanics.
He was also playing for a dysfunctional team — the Philadelphia 76ers — that was trying to emerge from years of intentionally losing. Former 76ers president Bryan Colangelo resigned after Fultz’s rookie season as a result of his wife admitting to operating “burner” social media accounts she used to criticize 76ers players. So, yeah, maybe it wasn’t the best environment for Fultz to develop in.
Jones: Who didn’t become a star? That’s tough. I’m kind of a mark for Greg Oden. I remember that final college at Ohio State in 2007 and thought he’d be a star. To see the injuries prevent Oden from becoming the best big of his generation still sucks. Add to that Kevin Durant was the second pick and is still having a Hall of Fame career and Oden’s teammate, Mike Conley, who was the fourth pick, is still in the league, and I wonder what would have been if Oden had been healthy.
Murray: The question is if I have a soft spot for a non-star top pick. The short answer to that question is no, I don’t. But I will say this about Fultz: I have really enjoyed my interactions with him since he restarted his career in Orlando. We spoke when I was putting a story together during the 2022-23 season about ACL recoveries, because Fultz’ star-crossed career included that injury as well. His teammates used to always say that Fultz was so resourceful as an NBA player that he didn’t even need a jumper. That’s coming from guys like Joel Embiid and JJ Redick. Fultz really worked himself into a productive NBA player after so many injuries, and he keeps trying to come back despite his ability eroding before the age of 30. These careers are fragile, but I do admire Fultz for continuing to keep trying to get out there.
The Mavericks are stacked with forwards. What would a successful season for Risacher look like in 2026-27?
Clark: Be impactful enough that Mavericks coach Dusty May feels like Risacher needs playing time every night. P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall are rotation locks for me. The Mavericks also added Tarik Biberović, a 6-foot-7 wing who was arguably the best shooter in Europe over the past three seasons. I think Risacher can carve out a role for himself if he can reliably make catch-and-shoot 3s, show more confidence attacking closeouts off the dribble than he did in Atlanta and dig in defensively.
Jones: Staying in the rotation, doing enough to earn a chance to play in 2027-28. The expectations will be low from the outsiders, so if he can stay on the floor that’s a win. If he gets his opportunity, Risacher has to prove how things ended in Atlanta were really just a setup for a major comeback.
Murray: Ah, now we are talking. I actually hate Risacher’s landing spot in Dallas. I’m sure Masai Ujiri, hoarder of forwards with ambiguous utility, is thrilled to get a player like Risacher. There’s too many bodies here, and even fewer who are interested or effective at passing the ball or facilitating offense. A successful season for Risacher might actually involve getting the heck out of Dallas and to a team that actually has a need for a wing who needs to run and shoot. In the meantime, Risacher needs to take this personal and play with some fire in his belly, particularly on the defensive end, where any value he has right now has been purely theoretical. He can look at former teammate Dyson Daniels and what he did at the same age after New Orleans let him go after being a top-ten pick and implement that redemption arc accordingly, and it might involve hating his former team like Daniels did.
