By Martin Graham
The opening months of the Premier League campaign have brought an unexpected development: goals created through open play have dropped sharply, while strikes crafted from set-pieces have climbed.
Across the first 11 fixtures, teams have delivered 39 fewer goals in fluid attacking sequences compared with the same point last year. At the same time, there have been 26 additional goals originating from corners, free-kicks, and spot-kicks. The overall return is 13 fewer finishes.
The decline stretches beyond goals alone. Teams have attempted 370 fewer attempts from open play than they had by this stage last season.
Yet despite the rise in set-piece scoring, the volume of shots taken from dead-ball routines—excluding penalties—has increased by only two, underscoring how efficiently teams are converting those chances.
What the numbers reveal about goal trends
The 301 goals registered across 110 games work out at an average of 2.74 per match. That figure would mark the lowest output in five seasons if maintained, with only the 2020-21 average of 2.69 coming in lower.
Open-play finishing tells an even more striking story. The 196 goals scored in the run of play come to just 1.78 per fixture, a rate that is on course to be the smallest since 2009-10, when the average sat at 1.76.
That same 2009-10 season remains the only Premier League campaign in which non-penalty set-piece goals were produced more frequently than the current rate of 0.77 per match, which now sits just below the historical high of 0.79.
Teams shaping the shift
Some sides have contributed more noticeably than others to the downturn in open-play scoring. Wolves illustrate the most dramatic fall, contributing only four such goals — 10 fewer than at this time last season.
Elsewhere, most of the shortfall comes from within London. Five of the capital’s seven clubs have supplied at least five fewer open-play goals, though much of that reflects their unusually explosive finishing at the beginning of last season rather than a major collapse in creativity this time around.
Manchester City stand out as a rare exception. Nearly all of their 23 goals have come from open-play situations, with only one arriving from another source.
Comparing promoted clubs to the teams they replaced also shows interesting contrasts. Sunderland, who came up via the play-offs, have delivered three more goals in open play than Southampton managed during the same stretch of their relegation season.
When the focus shifts to set-piece output excluding penalties, Arsenal and Chelsea show the most pronounced increases. Each side has compensated for scoring five fewer open-play goals by producing that same number from dead-ball scenarios.
Manchester United have also doubled their tally from set-pieces compared with the 11-game period before Ruben Amorim’s arrival. Sunderland again edge the team they replaced by scoring more from similar situations.
City, meanwhile, continue to move against the general pattern. They have produced three fewer set-piece goals than last season, with Nottingham Forest seeing a similar reduction—likely a consequence of changes in approach.
What this could mean for the rest of the season
Statistics shows that six teams—Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham—exemplify the broader movement towards fewer open-play goals and greater reliance on set-pieces. Manchester City remain the only club operating in reverse, scoring more often in open play and less often from dead-ball routines.
Whether this tactical leaning persists or whether teams rediscover the fluency and imagination that fuel open-play scoring remains to be seen. The coming months will reveal if the Premier League continues down this path or swings back toward a more free-flowing style.
