While there’s no guarantee that the Tigers will trade ace Tarik Skubal, they would be wise to entertain offers for him heading into the trade deadline. Set to become a free agent in 2027 with a potential lockout on the horizon, Skubal is a tantalizing trade chip — despite an injury* — thanks to Detroit sitting six games out of a postseason spot at the time of writing this. Although the American League has been surprisingly weak this year, the Tigers are just 4-13 against their own division, with all four of their wins coming against the Royals. If the arbitration case between the Tigers and Skubal were any indicator of future negotiations between the two parties, signing him to a free agent deal (and potentially the largest one ever for a pitcher) doesn’t appear to be likely.
The Rays, on the other hand, currently have the best record in the American League and fourth best record in baseball despite their recent minor skid. Not having Ryan Pepiot in the middle of their rotation hasn’t hurt them too much, but relatively strict innings limits to Shane McClanahan, Steven Matz, Griffin Jax, and to a lesser extent Drew Rasmussen should put them in the market for some rotation help as we approach the trade deadline.
Of course any team would benefit from trading for an ace like Skubal, but the Rays would be an exceptionally strong fit given their current place in the standings and their need to supplement the rotation with quality — not just an innings eater.
*Skubal claims he is “symptom free” following a NanoScope procedure to remove a loose body from his elbow, and is building back up to a starter’s workload, even throwing a 70-pitch simulated game at the Trop this week
What could a potential trade package for Skubal look like?
I think it’ll take one higher tier prospect plus an additional mid-tier guy, and I think just about everyone is available. The market may ultimately prove me wrong, but I think the combination of injury uncertainty and limited remaining control keeps the price below the blockbuster packages often associated with frontline starters.
Given the Rays’ necessity to clear space for their Rule 5 crunch this winter, it’s more likely they consolidate prospects in a package for Skubal rather than trading away current Major League talent, and less likely they would deal from deep in the minors. Accordingly, I’d be surprised to see the Rays entertaining moving Theo Gillen in a package for such a short term rental like Skubal. Few prospects in baseball have seen their stock rise more over the past year than Gillen.
That next tier of Rays prospects contains two guys: Nathan Flewelling and Brody Hopkins. They both have high upside to be above average regulars with several impact tools. I think a trade conversation starts with one of them, but not both, and leans toward Hopkins, who will demand a roster slot next year.
Why not both? Remember, the Rays would be acquiring only a partial season of Skubal, not multiple years of control. Giving up 6+ years of control of both Flewelling and Hopkins would be a significant overpay. That’s not to say that a team won’t have to overpay to get Skubal; starting pitching is usually the most expensive commodity at the deadline. I think it’ll take a mild to moderate overpay to land Skubal, and a Rays’ trade package starts with a player in their top tier of prospects behind Gillen.
After one of Flewelling or Hopkins, the Rays would likely need to add some additional prospect capital. The next tier contains guys who could be solid big leaguers but have bigger question marks in their profiles compared to the previous three guys mentioned. This tier consists of prospects with legitimate major-league upside but either less projection, less certainty, or less positional value than Flewelling and Hopkins. Players in this tier would be:
These guys have varying levels of track record and projection that could help the Rays land Skubal when coupled with one of Flewelling or Hopkins. The Rays may even need to add an additional prospect to their package depending on how the market for starting pitching shapes up this summer. If contenders start losing their frontline starters to injury, Skubal’s price could climb, although probably not as high as what it was heading into this season.
A good rule of thumb for making a trade is that if it doesn’t hurt at least a little, it’s probably not a fair trade. No “Clint Frazier + Miguel Andujar” scenarios here. Giving up Flewelling or Hopkins plus another prospect listed above would absolutely hurt, but that’s usually the cost of acquiring frontline starting pitching in July.
For a Rays team with World Series aspirations and a looming Rule 5 crunch, this is exactly the type of aggressive consolidation move that makes sense to explore.
